Whether you’re a real estate agent, potential homebuyer, or real estate speculator, one fact is clear about Manitoba’s current housing market: there are not enough homes in the province to meet demand—not even remotely so.

According to the Fraser Institute, a Canadian watchdog for government policy, Manitoba’s housing prices have seen a dramatic incline in recent years. Average sale prices, they say, have nearly quadrupled in just a few years’ time.1

Simply put, this is because house prices and rents increase with rises in demand, and in 2025 demand far exceeds supply.

It’s a fairly recent phenomenon, says Steve Lafleur for the Fraser Institute. In the latter twentieth century, Manitoba was seeing around 1.2 new residents per housing start.

By 2016, this ratio rose to around 2.8 new residents per new home.

In 2022, though, that number leapt upwards to 4.6 new residents per new build, the highest it had been in many decades.

For a variety of reasons, Manitoba’s builders aren’t keeping pace with population growth.

For example, housing completions in the 1970s averaged twice that of population growth. In 2022, new home builds only met about one-fifth the number of new residents coming in.

It is helpful to note, though, that population growth in recent years has been more than eight times what it was in the 1970s, yet new housing has increased by only about 1.5 times.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), 260,000 homes will need to be built in Manitoba in the next five years in order to match demand and restore affordability.

Unfortunately, the Fraser Institute says that governments in Manitoba, both provincial and municipal, have been slow to create policy which would boost housing construction.

Local Real Estate Agent

Dan Vermette is a real estate agent with RE/MAX Performance and he lives in Île-des-Chênes. About fifty percent of his home sales occur in Winnipeg. The rest are in rural areas like Ritchot and Niverville.

Vermette says that residential developers have been doing a number of things to try building new homes that are also affordably priced.

The latest trend, he says, is in density construction, both in Winnipeg and, more recently, in rural communities. Older homes are often razed and replaced with more units that are compact in size.

“In the city, they’re splitting the 60-foot-wide lots into 30s or 25s and [smaller homes] are being built on them or duplexes, triplexes, or fourplexes,” Vermette says. “What I see in the country is… subdivisions with 70-foot country lots, they are gone. We’re squished down to city lot [sizes], almost. Fifty-foot [widths] is now considered average to large. That’s why you see only two stories being built. There’s no space for the sprawl of a big bungalow anymore.”

In an age when the cost of building materials continues to climb, this is one of the only ways for a builder to cut new home prices since the lot comprises about one-quarter of the home’s value.

But in Vermette’s estimation, builders may need to think in even smaller terms. For example, micro homes with square footages of around 400 to 500 could be the next best option in terms of affordability.

Before that can happen, though, builders and municipal governments will have to change the way they view the tiny home concept and create policy to support it.

“There will have to be a ton of homes coming onto the market and less buyers to turn the tables around,” Vermette says. “If we had a surplus of inventory, prices will decrease, but I still don’t see that coming.”

In the meantime, first-time buyers can expect to pay approximately $430,000 to $450,000 for a starter home in the city, according to Vermette. It’s a bit less in rural areas, where averages may be closer to $350,000 to $400,000.

“The houses that you get for that price are okay. You get a 1970s bungalow in St. Adolphe for $400,000. As soon as you go up to $450,000 or $500,000, you cut down the noise and now you get much more house for your money.”

The problem with a glut in demand for mid-range pricing is that it drives up the sale price on all mid-range homes and new builds. Both builders and real estate agents watch those numbers to value their new build or next sale.

Despite tough economic times, Vermette says there is still a significant demand for high-end housing, too.

“We’ve never sold more million-dollar [and higher] homes as we are doing now,” he says.

Looking back at the last five years, he says it’s hard to put a finger on just one thing that’s caused the market’s disparity.

Without a doubt, the pandemic played a part. In the early stages people were paralyzed by fear of what the future held, and no one was buying. Then the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates and everyone rushed to take advantage, flooding the market with buyers.

Those interest rates have since stabilized, but a stable bank rate is as good as a low one, Vermette says. People can hang their hat on that kind of stability.

Equally important is what has happened with immigration in recent years. During the pandemic, applications for immigration were put on hold. Later, the floodgates opened up.

According to the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, migrants from other provinces or countries were responsible for 37,000 of the nearly 39,000 new Manitobans in 2024 alone.2

Of course, this puts an added strain on an already saturated housing market.

“The demand is huge,” Vermette says. “Almost every house in Winnipeg is seeing multiple offers and [many] over list price. I’m seeing that in the country now too.”

Recently, in Lorette, Vermette says his clients received $60,000 over asking price, and this isn’t uncommon.

In his 30 years in real estate, Vermette says he’s seen this kind of market phenomenon only once or twice. In those cases, the rush to buy and overbid was caused by low interest rates combined with economic stability.

Tips for Buyers and Sellers

Until the market adjusts, Vermette has a few tips for his clients when hunting for a new home.

Getting pre-approved for financing, Vermette says, is the very first step, even before you start shopping.

Next, ensure that you have an optimal deposit to put down on a home. For some, this may mean liquidating their RRSPs.

The higher the deposit, he says, the more credible you are to the seller since your risk of walking away from a deal is less likely when there’s more at stake.

Finally, minimizing conditions placed on a deal will help bump you closer to the top of the list in times when numerous bids are on the table.

If you want a home inspection done, Vermette says you should get that done before you put in an offer.

“Don’t put that in as a condition in your offer because you’ll get kicked out [of the running] right away.”

To prevent the need for writing a condition of purchase pending the sale of existing property, Vermette suggests to his clients that they sell their home first and, for added security, have a potential co-signer in place just in case.

As for sellers, it’s more straightforward.

Good staging of the home, of course, is essential. Sometimes it’s a matter of cleaning and decluttering. Other times, hiring a professional stager to replace existing furnishings with more stylish décor can be effective in garnering the best offers.

Vacant homes never show well, Vermette says.

Finally, trust your real estate agent when it comes to asking price. Agents have immediate access to all the recent home sales in any particular neighbourhood and are in an optimal position to determine what the market will bear.