Canada has elected a new federal government. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will return to Ottawa for a second term, this time leading a minority government.
The seat tally as of Monday night, with some local races not yet called, show the Liberals with 157 seats, the Conservatives with 121, the Bloc Quebecois with 32 seats, the NDP with 24 seats, and the Greens with 3 seats. Former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould beat the odds to win her B.C. riding as an Independent, a rare feat in Canadian politics.
The nascent People’s Party was shut out of the seat count, leaving the future of that party uncertain. Its leader, Maxine Bernier, a former Conservative cabinet minister who had previously lost to Andrew Scheer in the Conservative leadership race, lost his Quebec seat by more than 6,000 votes.
To form a majority government, one of the parties would have needed to earn at least 170 seats.
Locally, the result in Provencher favoured the Conservatives. Ted Falk has been elected for a third term with 31,588 votes, which accounts for 65.8 percent of the vote. He was trailed by Trevor Kirczenow of the Liberals (6,254 votes, 13 percent), Erin McGee of the NDP (6,093 votes, 12.7 percent), Janine Gibson of the Greens (2,930 votes, 6.1 percent), and Wayne Sturby of the People’s Party (1,158 votes, 2.4 percent).
The local voter turnout was 69.6 percent, somewhat higher than the national turnout of 66 percent.
An interesting and perhaps controversial artefact of Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system is that although the Liberals won the most seats, the Conservatives came out ahead in the popular vote nationwide by approximately 250,000 votes, largely on the strength of huge victories in the western provinces than ran up the vote counts.
This is far from the first time in history that the party forming government is not the same party who won the popular vote, although it hasn’t happened in 40 years. This is the fourth Canadian election where that occurred, most recently in 1979 when Joe Clark of the Progressive Conservatives became Prime Minister despite losing the popular vote. The same scenario played out in 1957 and 1926.
Looking at the electoral map more broadly, the results of the election has been said to amplify some sharp regional differences across the country. Notably, the Liberals will no longer have any representation in either Alberta or Saskatchewan when they return to the House of Commons. Also, the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec resulted in the decimation of the NDP there and greatly cut into Conservative support in that province.
With a minority government, time will tell how the Liberals intend to govern. It is certain that the Liberals will find themselves partnering with other parties in order to pass legislation.
Ted Falk Win Landslide
Not only did Ted Falk win re-election in a landslide, but he increased his vote share this election by about 10 percent.
“I was very pleased with our campaign,” says Falk. “We had a clear and consistent message about affordability that clearly resonated with Provencher voters. I have a great staff team and our volunteers are second to none. Everybody worked so hard for this victory… I still think Andrew Scheer would make a great Prime Minister. We’ll see what happens with the party and leadership moving forward.”
Falk adds that it’s disappointing the Conservatives won’t form government, despite winning the popular vote and picking up of 22 seats.
“We’ll continue to work hard to hold the Liberals to account,” he adds. “I have always thought that an NDP government would be worse than a Liberal one, and I think now, in this minority situation, we’re going to see some sort of coalition between the two to pass legislation. We’re going to do everything in our power to block the kind of irresponsible legislation that I expect we’ll see from that sort of arrangement. We’ll keep working hard to help Canadians keep more money in their pocket and help Canadians to get ahead.”
Falk is pessimistic about the prospects of being able to work with the Liberals on big-picture projects like pipelines and fixing Canada’s trade relationship with China.
“With the NDP holding the balance of power, I wouldn’t hold your breath,” he says. “That said, I think we’ve shown in the past four years that, despite our differences, we can still get things done for our constituents. I’ve worked with the government on a variety of issues to help constituents here in Provencher. For example, I worked with former Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale to help keep border crossings open for our border communities. We also continue to work with the government and telecom providers to bring in infrastructure dollars, particularly for rural broadband and cell service.”
Liberal Candidate Reflects on Campaign
In Provencher, Falk was opposed by Liberal candidate Trevor Kirczenow, who came in second place, narrowly edging out the NDP’s Erin McGee.
“It was my first time running, and I learned a lot,” Kirczenow says of the experience, noting that it was a great opportunity to connect with so many constituents. “Of course, any person who puts their name on the ballot hopes to win, and I did not achieve that, but I had other important goals as well. I engaged in meaningful political conversations in Provencher, and I gave progressive voters a serious choice.”
In particular, Kirczenow doesn’t believe that so-called “safe seats” like Provencher, which has reliably elected Conservative Members of Parliament for decades, are healthy for Canadian democracy.
“There needs to be lively debate, and I know I contributed to that!” he adds. “There were many voters from diverse backgrounds who reached out to me to say that they appreciated my visibility as the Liberal Party’s first-ever openly transgender candidate, running against an incumbent who refuses to stand with our LGBTQ2S community.”
Kirczenow points out that while the Conservatives won the local vote, a majority of Canadians voted for progressive candidates. Because of that, he anticipates that despite the Liberals presiding over a minority government, his party will have plenty of allies.
“Most Canadians voted for a progressive choice—Liberal, NDP, and Green. Most Canadians voted for a party that prioritizes protecting our environment. There are enough similarities in those platforms that I believe the Liberal Party will be able to get some great work done.”
Western Anxieties
Both Falk and Kirczenow express concern about the gap in representation that has resulted from the Liberals winning so few seats in western Canada, and no seats at all in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
“Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has already stated that he aims to take down the minority government, which I fear could exacerbate the divide between the rural prairies and other parts of the country,” Kirczenow says. “I think it would be good to try first and see what can be accomplished together, rather than opposing the new government simply for the sake of opposing it. Prime Minister Trudeau… will need to listen to and communicate with constituents in these areas despite not having any Liberal or NDP MPs here, which will be a challenge.”
In the days following the election, there have already been renewed rumblings of western separation from grassroots Conservative voters in western Canada who feel their voices are consistently not being heard by Ottawa.
“I certainly understand and share the frustration of many western voters,” says Falk. “That said, threatening to walk out is not the right way to fix a broken relationship. We need both sides to be willing to talk and work together to move Canada forward in unity. I do hope that the overwhelming rejection of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals by western voters will make them sit up and take notice. Again, I’m not holding my breath with this Prime Minister, but I know the Conservative Party will work hard to make sure western views and values are given a voice in Parliament.”