According to the Hydrologic Forecast Centre, there is low to moderate risk of spring flooding in Manitoba this year. An exception is made for some areas of the Interlake and northern Manitoba where the risk moves to moderate or high.

“The risk of spring flooding could change depending on future weather conditions, including the amount of precipitation throughout the remainder of winter and spring, as well as the rate of snowmelt and thaw,” reads the centre’s March 18 report.

The province’s major lakes, such as Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba, and the various lakes of the Whiteshell, are within typical operating range for this time of year and are expected to remain so until the spring runoff is complete.

The annual flood assessment considers a number of factors, including soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up. Those moisture levels were near to normal or below normal in the fall.

Precipitation has also been in the normal range through the winter so far. Soil frost depths are allowing for adequate infiltration of meltwater.

“The province’s practice is to plan and prepare for the unfavourable future weather condition scenario, which represents a one-in-ten probability of occurrence from now until the spring runoff,” the report continues.

Barring any surprises from Mother Nature, it is expected that the Red River Floodway won’t be put into full operation this spring. Other diversions may be operated to mitigate ice-jamming or reduce downstream flood risk. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have already gotten underway.

Forecasts are calling for above normal temperatures over the next three months. Even so, the precipitation outlook is more difficult to predict. In the meantime, Manitobans are reminded to stay clear of all waterways, rivers, and retention ponds as the melt proceeds.